Skip to main content
NUTRITION 2025 Main banner

Policies and Regulations (Poster Session)

(P28-005-25) Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Implementing a Mandatory Trans-Fat Limit in Indonesia: A Modelling Study

Monday, June 2, 2025
12:45 PM - 1:45 PM ET
Location: Poster Board B-5

    Presenting Author(s)

  • Qinyi Gu, RD, MSPH (she/her/hers)

    Graduate Student
    Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
    Baltimore, Maryland, United States

    • Co-Author(s)

  • LA

    Leopold Aminde

    Griffith University, School of Medicine and Dentistry, Australia

  • PA

    Prisca Arfines

    The George Institute for Global Health and University of New South Wales, Australia

  • KT

    Kathy Trieu, PhD

    Research Fellow
    The George Institute for Global Health
    Newtown, New South Wales, Australia

  • LH

    Liping Huang

    The George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, Australia

  • LD

    Liz Drummond

    Resolve to Save Lives, United States

  • LC

    Laura Cobb, DrPH

    Director
    Resolve to Save Lives, Vital Strategies
    New York, New York, United States

  • JW

    Jason H. Wu, PhD

    Program Head
    The George Institute for Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, UNSW Sydney
    Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

  • JV

    J. Lennert Veerman, MD, PhD

    Professor
    Griffith University
    Southport, Queensland, Australia

  • MM

    Matti Marklund, PhD, MSE

    Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Center for Human Nutrition, Department of International Health; University of New South Wales, The George Institute for Global Health and the Faculty of Medicine; Johns Hopkins University, Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology, and Clinical Research; Uppsala University, Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism, United States

Disclosure(s):
Qinyi Gu, RD, MSPH: Resolve to Save Lives, Inc.: Grant/Research Support (Ongoing)
The George G. Graham Professorship Endowment Fund at Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health: Employee (Ongoing); Grant/Research Support (Ongoing)


Objectives: Estimating the health impacts, costs, and cost-effectiveness of mandatory industrial trans-fatty acids (iTFAs) limits ( < 2% of total fat) in the Indonesian food supply.

Methods: A multiple cohort proportional life table model was used to estimate the impact of mandatory iTFA limits on health benefits (averted ischemic heart disease [IHD] events and deaths, and health-adjusted life years [HALYs] gained) and costs over the first 10 years and the population’s lifetime. Dietary iTFA intake data and IHD disease burden were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study. The study population included all adults ≥ 20 years old alive in Indonesia in 2021, organized into sex-specific 5-year age groups. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated from an extended healthcare perspective, with net costs including healthcare costs and government implementation costs. Costs and HALYs were discounted by 3% annually.

Results: A complete elimination of iTFA in Indonesia’s food supply was estimated to avert 115,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 101,000-130,000) IHD events and 27,000 (23,000-30,000) IHD deaths, generate 79,000 (70,000-89,000) HALYs and save 213 (181, 248) million USD in healthcare costs over the first 10 years. Over the population lifetime, the policy could prevent 582,000 (509,000-665,000) IHD events and 306,000 (267,000-348,000) IHD deaths, generate 1.2 (1.1-1.4) million HALYs, and save 1.2 (1.0-1.3) billion USD in healthcare costs. The government implementation costs were estimated at 18.0 (15.3-20.9) million USD over 10 years and 36.8 (33.8-39.8) million USD across the population’s lifetime. The intervention was projected to be cost-saving regardless of the time horizon, with findings remaining consistent across multiple sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions: Legislating mandatory iTFA restrictions in Indonesia could be a cost-saving strategy to avert a significant number of IHD cases and deaths while reducing healthcare costs.

Funding Sources: Resolve to Save Lives, Inc. with support from Founders Pledge.