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Leveraging Social, Environmental, and Policy Priorities to Address Food Security and Diet Quality Outcomes (Oral Session 13)

(OR13-01-25) Projected Dietary Impact of a Tax on Unhealthy Packaged Food Among Children and Adolescents in the Philippines

Monday, June 2, 2025
10:00 AM – 10:12 AM ET
Location: S220 E-G
Objectives: To estimate the dietary impact of a 20% tax on packaged foods high in sugar or sodium among children and adolescents in the Philippines.

Methods: We simulated children’s and adolescents’ intakes of sodium and sugar from 18 packaged food categories over 10 years under two scenarios: a base case assuming continued trends in intake and a scenario with the same trends plus a 20% tax targeting foods exceeding category-specific sodium or sugar thresholds, considered high-sugar or -sodium (HSS). Dietary intakes, prices, and price elasticities were derived from the 2018–2019 Expanded National Nutrition Survey, and consumption trends from Euromonitor Passport. Reformulation was assumed feasible for foods exceeding thresholds by < 50%. Analyses were stratified by age, sex, and socioeconomic status (SES), and uncertainty intervals (UI) were derived in n=1,000 simulations.

Results: At baseline, ~90% of children’s and adolescents’ sodium intake from the 18 categories came from HSS foods, with ready-made meals and processed meats contributing 45–60% of all sodium from these categories. Excluding beverages (already taxed), HSS products accounted for >95% of sugar from other categories. Sweet bakery goods and confectionery were the top contributors, collectively providing 70–80% of sugar intake from these categories. Without the tax, mean sodium intake was projected to rise ~20% and sugar ~11% over 10 years. The tax could prevent ~75% of the sodium and ~40% of the sugar increase. For example, mean sodium intake from the 18 categories in females aged 10–14 y could increase from 916 (95% UI: 893–939) to 1,103 (1,068–1,140) mg/d without the tax but only to 971 (925–1,015) mg/d with it. These tax effects were greater in lower SES quintiles, particularly among younger groups. Most tax effects (80–90%) were driven by consumer response to higher prices rather than reformulation, especially in lower SES groups.

Conclusions: Compared to the base case scenario, a 20% tax on unhealthy packaged foods in the Philippines could lower sodium and sugar intake among children and adolescents, especially in vulnerable groups. By curbing rising intakes of unhealthy foods during critical stages of growth, such a tax may promote healthier dietary patterns, prevent early diet-related diseases, and reduce health disparities.

Funding Sources: Resolve to Save Lives, Inc. with support from Founders Pledge