(EA01-07-25) Impacts of Climate Change on Nutrient Availability for Women of Reproductive Age Through 2050

Scientific conference where the work was recently presented: 10^th AgMIP Conference (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project)

Date on which the work was previously presented at the scientific conference listed: March 31, 2025

Objectives: Climate change is a major threat to food security and nutrition. We model changes in consumption patterns and resulting nutrient availability for women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia using alternative climate scenarios through 2050.

Methods: Using the International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI’s) International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) economic model of the global food and agriculture system, we project changes in per capita consumption of over 40 major food categories under alternative climate scenarios through 2050. The projections are combined with data from the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) and Global Dietary Database (GDD) to estimate the Nutrient Supply (GENuS) and Global Dietary Database (GDD) to estimate the nutrient content of food categories and baseline per capita consumption of each food category by women of reproductive age (15-24), relative to the population in each country or region. Changes are estimated by country in 2050 for each climate change scenario relative to a no-climate change. We chose Burkina Faso, Chad, Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, Uganda to represent sub-Saharan Africa, and Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India to represent South Asia.

Results: Incorporating climate change impacts tends to reduce projected food availability for women of reproductive age in key food groups, particularly maize and rice, which are sometimes fortified with micronutrients. Compared to no-climate change, in sub-Saharan Africa consumption of maize is projected to decrease by 7-9% in 2050 in a high emissions climate change scenario. In South Asia climate change is projected to decrease consumption of rice by 3% in 2050. Maize and rice are a source of iron, zinc, and other key nutrients in these geographies as they make up a large portion of the diet and can be fortified. The negative effect of climate change on animal-source products, fruits and vegetables is more variable, though important for nutrient availability.

Conclusions: Projections of the effect of climate change on food consumption and nutrient availability for women 15-24 allow us to explore the potential for nutrition and food security interventions to mitigate negative impacts on maternal and child health.

Funding Sources: RTI International