(P23-003-25) Impact of Mexican Healthy and Sustainable Dietary Guidelines on Cardiovascular Mortality by Sociodemographic Factors in Mexican Adults

Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of adopting the Mexican Healthy and Sustainable Dietary Guidelines 2023 (MHSDG) on CVD mortality in Mexico, stratified by sex, area, region, age, and indigenous status, compared with the Mexican current diet.

Methods: We employed a modeling approach within a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate changes in total CVD mortality. The analysis included ten dietary risk factors: fruits, vegetables, whole grains, legumes, red meat, processed meat, fish, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) and ultra-processed foods (UPF). Relative risks for each dietary factor-disease relationship were sourced from dose-response meta-analyses. Sociodemographic data were obtained from the 2016 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT), and diet were derived from 24-h dietary recall. Mortality data for CVDs were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). Averted deaths were calculated using Population Impact Fractions incorporating uncertainty through bootstrapping.

Results: If the entire Mexican population adopted the MHSDG, between 41.9% ( CI39.8–44.0%) to 44.5% (CI 41.9–47.7%) of CVD deaths could be avoided in women and men, respectively. Including reduced UPF intake, total averted deaths would reach 28,286 (CI: 26,838–29,795) in women and 34,531 (CI: 32,691–36,370) in men. The greatest reduction was observed in urban women (46%, CI: 43.7–49%) compared to rural women (41.5%, CI: 39.1–43.0%), and in non-indigenous (45.3%, CI: 43.0–47.9%) vs. indigenous women (37.8%, CI: 32.3–42.9%). Among men, the reduction was higher in the north (54%, CI: 48.6–59.2%) than in the south (44%, CI: 39.4–48.2%). The food groups contributing the most to averted deaths were increased nut consumption (15% in women, 13.8% in men), lower SSB intake (9.9%), increased legumes (8.1%), and reduced UPF (7%) in men. In women, the greatest impacts came from increased whole grains (7.9%), legumes (7.3%), and vegetables (6%).

Conclusions: Adopting the MHSDG could significantly reduce CVD mortality in Mexico, particularly in northern and urban areas. Public health efforts should prioritize increasing plant-based food intake, particularly among women, while targeting SSB and UPF reduction in men. Tailoring dietary guidelines to sociodemographic factors is crucial to maximize their effectiveness.

Funding Sources: No funding was received for this study.